The Greater Toronto housing market roared back to life in July, recording its busiest month in four years. After months of hesitation and economic anxiety, buyers finally jumped back in—but for how long? According to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), sales jumped 10.9% year-over-year, with 6,100 homes changing hands. It’s a remarkable shift—but experts warn that uncertainty, rising tensions, and dashed expectations could be right around the corner.

Buyers Flood Back—But Not Everyone’s Breathing Easy

Many buyers had spent spring sitting on the sidelines, paralyzed by mixed economic signals and the threat of further financial instability. But come July, that wait-and-see approach flipped—and fast.

“People were holding off,” said Bosley Real Estate broker Davelle Morrison. “But in July, I think people realized this economic limbo might not go away anytime soon. They just had to make their move.”

In other words, many jumped in—not because they were confident, but because they were tired of waiting.

Price Drops Spark Movement—But Relief Could Be Short-Lived

One major driver behind the sales surge? A dip in prices. The average sale price across the Greater Toronto housing market fell 5.5% from last year to $1,051,719, and the benchmark price—a typical home value—also slid 5.4%.

TRREB President Elechia Barry-Sproule called the price adjustment a much-needed break, but she was quick to add: “We still need more relief, especially when it comes to borrowing costs.”

Even with this improvement, the pressure remains high. Affordability is improving slightly, but it’s still tight—and many wonder if this is just a temporary reprieve.

The Spring Slowdown Is Over—But Shadows Linger

Earlier in the year, sales were falling fast:

• April: Down 23% year-over-year

• May: Down 13%

• June: Down 2%

Buyers were spooked by inflation, the uncertain U.S.–Canada trade environment, and rising interest rates. But in July, the floodgates reopened.

“We had clients who paused in March and April, some came back in July, but even now, a lot of people are still uneasy.” said Davelle Morrison, a broker with Bosley Real Estate Ltd.

Inventory Is Rising, But So Are the Stakes

The Greater Toronto housing market also saw a significant increase in inventory:

• New listings in July: 17,613 (up 5.7% from July 2024)

• Active listings: 30,215 (up 26.2%)

More listings should mean more choice—but with more choice comes more pressure, especially for sellers trying to hit lofty price targets.

TRREB’s Chief Market Analyst, Jason Mercer, noted that while more homes are available, the broader Canadian economy is still treading water. The housing sector may be providing a boost—but it’s not enough to calm the storm just yet.

Bank of Canada Holds Rates, But Anxiety Remains High

The Bank of Canada left its key interest rate untouched at 2.75%—the third pause in a row. While it hinted at future rate cuts, no one’s holding their breath. Inflation is still sticky, and uncertainty around trade and consumer spending looms large.

Governor Tiff Macklem said the economy has shown “some resilience,” but also admitted the fight against inflation is far from over.

The Fall Market Could Be Rocky—Don’t Count on a Repeat

Despite the recent burst of activity, experts say the fall market might struggle to keep the momentum going.

“I’m not expecting fireworks in the fall,” said Morrison. “There are sellers who think they’ll relist and get their spring prices—and I just don’t see that happening.”

Sellers hoping for a bidding war may be disappointed. The market is stabilizing, but not necessarily in a good way.

Where the Sales Happened—and What Types of Homes Moved

The Greater Toronto housing market saw growth across the board in July:

• City of Toronto: 2,205 sales (up 11%)

• Rest of GTA: 3,895 sales (up 10.9%)

• Semi-detached homes: up 25.5%

• Detached homes: up 11.3%

• Townhouses: up 7.9%

• Condos: up 5.8%

Final Thoughts: Is This a Comeback or a Cautionary Tale?

Yes, the Greater Toronto housing market just had its strongest July since 2021. But while the numbers are up, so are the risks. Beneath the surface lies uncertainty, inflation pressure, and cautious consumer sentiment.

Buyers and sellers alike should proceed with care—this market may be warming up, but the temperature can change fast

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